Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Closed Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
